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Monthly Archives: August 2017

Dialogue offers only hope for India and Pakistan: Water Laureate

In an exclusive interview with thethirdpole.net, he spoke about the India and Pakistan transboundary water conflict, and said that, in fact, he sees this as a potential chance for the two countries to foster regional cooperation.

Earlier this year in March, McCaffrey was named the 2017 Stockholm Water Prize Laureate for his trailblazing work and contribution to the field of international water law. He received the prize from King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden, the Patron of Stockholm Water Prize at a Royal Award Ceremony on August 30. The ceremony was conducted during World Water Week 2017, organised by the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) being held in Sweden’s capital from August 27 to September 1.

Sitting in the Stockholm City Conference Centre a day ahead of receiving the prize, McCaffrey talked of how managing transboundary freshwater sources could become a solution instead of a problem for India and Pakistan. “Both India and Pakistan have found that cooperation produces more benefits and stability than conflict does,” he said.

India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in 1960. In McCaffrey’s opinion, it is remarkable that the Indus Waters Treaty system, and the permanent Indus commission that it set up, has continued to function between periods of conflict. “Since 1960 there have been some 12 instances of armed conflict between India and Pakistan. Yet members of the Commission continue to meet. Why? Because water is vital. It’s the only avenue there is for the two countries to relate to each other with respect to these shared water resources,” said the academic who has also worked as legal counsel to governments in transboundary disputes pertaining to the Ganga, Mekong and Nile rivers. McCaffrey is accredited with articulating the human right to water, which was recognised in 2010 by the UN General Assembly.

As one who believes in dialogue as the only way out of a conflict, McCaffrey is in favour of commissions like the one formed under the IWT. “We find that cooperation through these commissions produces more benefits than no cooperation. I am sure India and Pakistan believe the same thing. Unfortunately, India and Pakistan are not so close, but if they keep meeting, at least there is some stability in the knowledge that the two countries know where they are with respect to the six streams of water that are divided between the two countries.” While saying that he is no political scientist, McCaffrey is of the opinion that such commissions help countries to communicate on a constant basis, which he sees as a starting point on the path to mutual cooperation. “There may have been some problems, but the IWT Commission is still in force and is still observed; in case of a problem they follow the procedures in the Treaty.”

McCaffrey recognises the water rivalry between the two neighbours. He quotes what he said in his remarks at the World Water Week that the root of the word “rival” comes from the Latin words for river and someone who shares a river with someone else. “This rivalry is not unique to India and Pakistan. But India and Pakistan have other issues that just exacerbate the issue.”

Read: Politics dictated Indus Waters Treaty from first to last

He feels that the water boundaries of the two countries are mapped out in such a way that it leaves the two countries in a world ripe for conflict. He adds that India and Pakistan’s conflict over water is one of the most difficult ones. “It is not because of the water per se, but because of the underlying relationship between the two countries that has historical explanations,” he says, adding that the water relations between countries are dependent largely upon their general political relations. “If they have good relations, they can work anything out. If they don’t, the tiniest problem becomes huge. Development of water resources being what it is, things tend to become cast in concrete, literally. You build dams, and it’s not easy to reverse a dam.”

For achieving a mutually beneficial result, McCaffrey is convinced that it would take a lot of goodwill and trust on both sides. “That is something that may be lacking to some extent in the case of India and Pakistan. It may be, then, that the only option is third party dispute resolution, where you have to live with the third party’s decision. However, the good thing is that third parties do realise the importance of achieving a balanced solution because if you don’t, the likelihood of acceptance is diminished. Because if [you do not have a balanced solution], the party that believes they got the better deal will trumpet that, and the other one will be disgruntled.”

He cites, as examples, the two famous cases of dispute between India and Pakistan that have gone to third parties – the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams. The case of the Kishanganga dam has been in the news more recently, as India is constructing two hydropower projects on the Chenab river. Pakistan had objected to the construction of the Ratle and Kishanganga hydropower schemes, saying that building them would adversely impact flow of the Chenab and Neelum rivers. Under the IWT, both countries had begun negotiations under the World Bank (WB), which has continued to broker the water treaty between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours with a track record of an easily combustible relationship.

Read: Win some, lose some, Indus Waters Treaty continues

While the WB paused its latest arbitration on the Kishanganga dam in late 2016, it recently allowed India to build the two dams, albeit with certain restrictions in light of the IWT.

In both the cases of Baglihar and Kishanganga, India contacted McCaffrey to advise them. “I end up advising one country or the other; that’s just how the system works. It’s unfortunate that these dispute resolution procedures are always, in any treaty, set up this way that there is an adversarial meeting instead of one that takes advantage of knowledge and different techniques of dispute resolution to achieve a result that is mutually beneficial,” he said.

McCaffrey feels strongly that in this era where the world is faced with the most pressing challenge of climate change, it is time both India and Pakistan show flexibility. “The unpredictability of the water supply is worrisome. The Indus originates in the Himalayas. The glaciers are going to melt which means too much water; you will get rain instead of snow. Does Pakistan have the storage capacity to handle that much water? Do India’s dams that are built under the IWT have the capacity to release that much water?” He mentions the very real threat of dams getting overtopped, in the event of historic, unprecedented flows of water.

McCafferey expresses his tenacious hope for a peaceful and pragmatic solution to Pakistan and India’s water disputes. “What I would hope for between the two countries is coordinated action and planning, so that the development of the water courses produces the most benefits for both – that’s the ideal. I would hope that the leaders of both countries could support this ideal.”

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A glimmer of hope for Sindh

Costed Implementation Plan is a right step forward in improving the state of family planning in Sindh

A glimmer of hope

As Pakistan’s second most populous province, with the population projected to increase to 61.7 million by the year 2030, Sindh has a lot to achieve. Out of a conservatively estimated population of 46 million, as per the Sindh Population Policy (SPP) 2016, a majority of which resides in urban areas, the actual population has the province bursting at the seams, with massive numbers of people migrating to Sindh, particularly the mega city Karachi.

The indexes are not encouraging. Sindh fares lower than the blue-eyed and better governed Punjab when indicators of both provinces are juxtaposed. The developmentally nascent Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is also showing more promising upward trends.

Sindh has had successes, but numbered and calculated. While the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined from 5.1 births (in 1990-91) to 3.9 births (in 2012-13) in Sindh, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) for Sindh seems to be stuck in a status quo at 29.5 per cent during 2001-2013. Though 96 per cent of the population is aware of at least one method of family planning, the unmet need for contraception in Sindh is still stuck at 21 per cent. In 2015, 13 million women were of reproductive age (ages 15–49), a number expected to rise to 15 million by 2020.

The SPP 2016 shares its high hopes and important but farfetched aims. One of them is to ensure contraceptive commodity security up to 80 per cent at all public service outlets by 2018, while another aims to increase access to Family Planning (FP) and reproductive health services to the most remote and farthest areas of the province by 2017. With almost three quarters of 2017 having passed, this is a good point in time to take a look at the state of family planning in Sindh.

At such a time, the Costed implementation Plan (CIP) promises a glimmer of hope — hope that is conditional to implementation. As a five-year actionable roadmap designed to help the Sindh government achieve its FP goals, the Sindh CIP can play a critical tool in achieving targets. Sindh is Pakistan’s first province to develop a CIP on family planning. The motivation, perhaps, is not just the challenges a large population puts in front of Sindh’s developmental efforts. The political will of late prime minister Benazir Bhutto still looms large as an influence over Sindh’s policy makers. “I dream of a Pakistan, of an Asia, of a World, where every pregnancy is planned and every child conceived is nurtured, loved, educated, and supported,” she once said.

Looking at data from Sindh, it is clear that one of the most important factors is increasing the awareness among the population. A case in point is that the two most frequently used FP methods in Sindh are female sterilisation and condoms.

The government of Sindh allocated PKR 890 million (US$8.5 million) during the last fiscal year (July 2015–June 2016) to CIP activities for 2015–2019. If the CIP, the cost of which is an estimated PKR 79.12 billion (US$ 781 million), does get implemented, the positive ramifications can be immense. It can have an impact not just on the FP efforts, but will also impact health, education, women’s empowerment, employment, as well as demographic and economic activities. Experts predict that if the proposed interventions are carried out, 1,848 maternal deaths and 29,470 child deaths could be averted by the year 2020. Some 1,774,367 unintended pregnancies and 193,332 unsafe abortions could be averted.

This is sorely needed. Earlier this year, Dr Talib Lashari, Technical Advisor, Costed Implementation Programme of Sindh Population Welfare Department, shared with members of the media that Sindh’s birth rate is 1,240,467 per year. This high birth rate, he commented, would not only result in poverty, but also in an insufficiency of resources available to the people of the province.

The estimated cost of the Sindh CIP includes an infrastructure upgrade and mass media campaign. These two aims will help increase awareness among not just the masses but also help sensitise on-ground staff, medical personnel and government officials towards FP. The hope, then, is to eventually reach a point that results in a change of the mindset and not just the numbers.

One of the key tools in the practical implementation of the CIP are the lady health workers (LHWs) who can play an effective role. LHWs carry out layered and multiple roles, and work on activities related to community awareness, maternal health, nutrition, immunisation, FP, as well as providing guidance on minor ailments and health education. They have access into the homes of their communities, and have social impact.

A weak infrastructure and social attitudes make mobility of women to the distant and numbered public health units difficult. LHWs fulfill the need to go door-to-door and convince the communities regarding FP. Pakistan’s FP 2020 commitment requires that the role of the LHWs in FP be enhanced. It is encouraging that the CIP team recently concluded that 50 per cent of allocations for the LHW Programme would be dedicated for family planning work, rather than the earlier 25 per cent.

Other important parts of this jigsaw puzzle that cannot be afforded to be missed are the Lady Health Visitor (LHVs), Community Midwives, Rural Health Centres (RHCs) and Basic Health Units (BHUs). There are some 22,575 LHWs and 770 Lady Health Supervisors (LHS) working in Sindh.

An exhaustive consultative process with stakeholders enabled the PWD and Department of Health (DOH) in identifying six strategic areas for investment in FP, all equally important. They are well planned out and focus on both increasing knowledge and awareness among the communities as well as better governance, improved coordination among the government departments working on it, and consistent government spending on this cause.

Looking at data from Sindh, it is clear that one of the most important factors is increasing the awareness among the population. A case in point is that the two most frequently used FP methods in Sindh are female sterilisation and condoms. While people are aware of short-term methods like condoms, pills and injections, the use of these methods remains low, and will remain low till the people are made aware and the contraceptives are made readily available. There are vast disparities in the provinces urban and rural development landscapes. The CPR rate in urban areas is of 42.7 per cent, compared to 17.4 per cent in rural areas.

If this province has any hope of attaining success with regards to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030, FP will have to be a key focus. It is hoped that the CIP fulfills its aims, and alongside effective FP, also positively impacts literacy and education in Sindh, as well women’s empowerment via increased work participation and economic self-sufficiency.